Preseason Rankings
South Florida
American Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#250
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.4#330
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#261
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#247
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 15.9
.500 or above 16.0% 17.3% 3.5%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 5.5% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 37.8% 36.3% 52.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Home) - 90.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 2.80.1 - 2.8
Quad 1b0.2 - 2.60.3 - 5.4
Quad 20.7 - 4.71.0 - 10.1
Quad 32.2 - 5.43.2 - 15.5
Quad 48.3 - 3.911.6 - 19.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 349   Alabama A&M W 70-59 90%    
  Nov 12, 2018 188   Austin Peay L 68-72 46%    
  Nov 16, 2018 142   Ohio L 67-74 27%    
  Nov 18, 2018 69   Georgetown L 64-77 13%    
  Nov 21, 2018 352   Florida A&M W 72-59 92%    
  Nov 24, 2018 265   The Citadel W 80-79 63%    
  Nov 28, 2018 337   Stetson W 72-65 81%    
  Nov 30, 2018 209   Colgate L 66-68 53%    
  Dec 09, 2018 301   @ Charlotte W 73-70 49%    
  Dec 15, 2018 175   Appalachian St. L 68-72 46%    
  Dec 18, 2018 226   @ Florida International L 67-68 36%    
  Dec 21, 2018 346   Alcorn St. W 71-61 86%    
  Dec 29, 2018 252   Fairleigh Dickinson W 72-71 60%    
  Jan 02, 2019 96   Connecticut L 62-72 28%    
  Jan 05, 2019 98   @ Tulsa L 63-73 14%    
  Jan 09, 2019 195   Tulane L 68-71 49%    
  Jan 12, 2019 72   @ Temple L 62-74 10%    
  Jan 15, 2019 36   @ Cincinnati L 54-70 6%    
  Jan 19, 2019 37   Houston L 60-76 14%    
  Jan 22, 2019 81   Wichita St. L 64-75 25%    
  Jan 26, 2019 290   @ East Carolina W 69-67 47%    
  Feb 02, 2019 101   Memphis L 63-72 30%    
  Feb 07, 2019 56   @ SMU L 57-71 8%    
  Feb 10, 2019 290   East Carolina W 69-67 67%    
  Feb 13, 2019 55   @ Central Florida L 55-69 8%    
  Feb 16, 2019 72   Temple L 62-74 22%    
  Feb 23, 2019 37   @ Houston L 60-76 6%    
  Feb 27, 2019 55   Central Florida L 55-69 18%    
  Mar 03, 2019 96   @ Connecticut L 62-72 14%    
  Mar 06, 2019 195   @ Tulane L 68-71 30%    
  Mar 10, 2019 56   SMU L 57-71 18%    
Projected Record 11.6 - 19.4 4.1 - 13.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.1 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.6 1.5 0.2 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.6 9th
10th 0.1 2.1 6.0 6.8 3.4 0.6 0.0 19.0 10th
11th 0.8 5.7 10.4 8.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 28.5 11th
12th 3.6 8.7 8.7 4.3 1.1 0.1 26.5 12th
Total 3.6 9.5 14.6 16.9 15.8 13.5 9.9 6.4 4.8 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 94.5% 0.0    0.0
14-4 39.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 21.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 96.4% 49.1% 47.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.9%
14-4 0.1% 21.0% 0.7% 20.3% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.4%
13-5 0.1% 22.0% 0.4% 21.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 21.7%
12-6 0.3% 14.8% 14.2% 0.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8%
11-7 0.8% 2.0% 0.2% 1.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.7%
10-8 1.4% 2.2% 2.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
9-9 2.4% 1.3% 1.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
8-10 4.8% 1.0% 1.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
7-11 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 6.4
6-12 9.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.9
5-13 13.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 13.5
4-14 15.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 15.8
3-15 16.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.8
2-16 14.6% 14.6
1-17 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.5
0-18 3.6% 3.6
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.7 0.1%